Wellington Commuter Posts

• The North Wellington PT Study considered four “Scenarios” with convert the line into a Busway being the most popular but the Labour government said keep the trains.
• The consultants report also recommended “Do Minimum” which was to keep the line.
• LGWM did not even consider reviewing this decision so now it is time to check how this recommendation was fixed.

• The SKM Stage 3 Report recommended keeping the Johnsonville Line because no bus Scenario had a better Benefit Cost Ratio
• But the SKM Stage 3 Report recommended “Base Case” excluded the cost of buying any replacement EMU trains and other costs as well
• Excluding these costs hid that the Bus-On-Street Scenario had the best Benefit Cost Ratio

This post follows The North Wellington Public Transport Study (2006) which is the introduction this series of posts on “How to Fix a Transport Business Case for Rail” and will focus on how the “Do Minimum” Rail Base Case Benefit Cost Ratio was fixed in the SKM Stage 3 Report to help it come first.… Read more ...

• The SKM Stage 3 Report recommended keeping the Johnsonville Line by fixing the BCRs to hide that its modelling showed the Bus-On-Street Scenario was the best performing option.
• The Bus-On-Street Scenario only performed so well because the model invalidly included billions of future transport project improvements meaning future roads would be congestion free.

• In 2006, the SKM Stage 3 Report recommended a Do Minimum “Base Case” based on replacing the old English Electric EMUs with refurbished Ganz-Mavag EMUs.
• In 2010, the GWRC then announced that new Matangi EMUs would operate on the Johnsonville Line.